KVB PRIME：黄金因美元走强下跌，鲍威尔鸽派表态或限制其跌幅

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are under pressure due to a strong dollar, but expectations for a rate cut in September may provide support for gold prices [1][8]. Technical Analysis - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for gold, currently around 53.50 [3]. - A "golden cross" formation may occur if the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closes above the 50-day SMA, potentially increasing bullish sentiment among traders [3]. - Key resistance levels for gold include the previous high of $3,379 and the $3,400 mark, which may see significant trading activity [3][4]. - A critical support area is formed by the 21-day and 50-day SMAs around $3,346; failure to break this level may prevent further declines [5]. - Strong support is also noted at the 100-day SMA around $3,320, which has historically not been breached since December 31, 2024 [6][7]. Fundamental Overview - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments have reignited expectations for significant rate cuts this year, leading to a nearly $50 rebound in gold prices, reaching around $3,380 [8]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen to 88% from 75% following Powell's remarks, indicating a shift in sentiment [9]. - The recent sell-off in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by traders after a strong rally, but the decline is expected to be temporary due to a reassessment of the Fed's dovish policy stance [9].