DLSM外汇平台：美元需求回升致黄金下跌，鸽派信号或限制其跌幅

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on gold prices, which have dipped to around $3350. However, optimistic expectations for a rate cut in September, following Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, may provide support for gold prices, limiting their downside potential [1][3]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently in a downtrend but remain above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a bullish stance on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around neutral, suggesting a potential for short-term consolidation. Key resistance is identified in the $3400-$3410 range, which is significant as it represents a psychological barrier and aligns with the upper Bollinger Band and the high from August 8. If gold maintains above this range, it could rise towards the July 23 high of $3439, with the next resistance at the April 22 high and the round number of $3500. Conversely, initial support is at the August 19 low of $3315, with further downside potential to the Bollinger Band lower band at $3285 and the 100-day EMA at $3268 if this support is breached [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has opened the door for a rate cut in September, although he cautioned that persistent inflation could complicate this stance. He noted that the US economy is facing a "complex situation," with inflation risks skewed to the upside and employment risks to the downside. Powell's dovish comments may provide support for gold, as a rate cut would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not yield interest [3][5]. Market Expectations - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the preliminary US GDP data for Q2, with expectations of a 3.0% annualized growth rate. If actual data exceeds expectations, it could bolster the dollar and exert further pressure on gold prices [4]. Market Sentiment - The market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to nearly 85%, up from 75% prior to Powell's remarks. Despite recent volatility in gold prices, physical demand in major Asian trading centers remains subdued, with buyers largely adopting a wait-and-see approach. However, Indian jewelers have begun stocking up in preparation for the upcoming festive season [5].