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美元基差溢价近乎归零! “大而美法案”与关税重压之下 “抛美债”叙事不断强化
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-25 12:00

Core Viewpoint - The premium of the US dollar in the currency derivatives market is nearly disappearing, indicating a weakening demand for US Treasury bonds among foreign investors, driven by concerns over fiscal policies and tariffs under Trump's administration [1][2][5]. Group 1: Currency Derivatives Market - Recent statistics show that the weighted average basis of the US dollar against five major global currencies has significantly dropped to just below 3 basis points, moving towards a negative value for the first time since August 2020 [2]. - The decline in the dollar premium reflects a shift in investor sentiment, as foreign investors are increasingly seeking higher yields on US long-term Treasury bonds [1][8]. Group 2: Foreign Investment in US Treasuries - The proportion of US Treasuries held by foreign investors has decreased from a peak of 52% in 2012 to 33% currently, indicating a significant reduction in demand [5]. - Concerns over the US government's expanding fiscal policies and Trump's tariff strategies have led to narratives of "selling US assets" and the collapse of the "American exceptionalism" [5][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Trends - Analysts suggest that the ongoing high "term premium" and the decline of "American exceptionalism" are prompting foreign investors to seek opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in China [9][12]. - The anticipated increase in budget deficits due to Trump's policies may lead to soaring yields on US Treasuries, especially for longer maturities, potentially breaking historical highs [9][10]. - Major investment firms, including Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, are increasingly optimistic about emerging markets outperforming US equities as the dollar weakens and the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle [11][12].