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芦哲:9月降息的确定性与年内降息的变数——海外周报
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-25 12:35

Core Viewpoint - Recent US economic data exceeded expectations, initially reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in September, but Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting paved the way for a potential cut [3][5]. Economic Data and Market Reaction - The Jackson Hole meeting dominated market sentiment, with US stocks rebounding after a four-day decline. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.3% as a result of Powell's comments [4]. - For the week of August 18 to August 22, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 5.4 basis points to 4.262%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 4.4 basis points to 3.707%. The US dollar index fell by 0.14% to 97.72 [4]. Jackson Hole Meeting Insights - Powell's speech indicated a shift in monetary policy stance, suggesting a lower threshold for a September rate cut. He noted that inflation risks have diminished, while unemployment has risen significantly [5]. - Employment growth has slowed, with an average of only 35,000 non-farm jobs added over the past three months, far below the monthly target of 168,000 for 2024 [5]. Monetary Policy Framework Adjustments - The Federal Reserve announced revisions to its monetary policy framework, moving away from the average inflation targeting (AIT) to a more flexible 2% inflation target. This change reflects the current high inflation environment [6]. - The focus on employment shortfalls has been removed, but the Fed will still monitor employment levels closely [6]. Strategic Implications - In an optimistic scenario, the expectation is for rate cuts in September and December, with an overall reduction of no more than 50 basis points for the year. The market currently prices in about 2.2 rate cuts for the year, which may be overly optimistic [7]. - Following the September FOMC meeting, the market is likely to increase bets on rate cuts in 2026, which could lead to a downward trend in the 2-year Treasury yield and the US dollar index [7].