Keep扭亏？仍困在三座大山里

Core Insights - Keep's founder Wang Ning outlined four strategic directions for the company: "All in AI, hardware ecosystem, multi-scenario fitness, and globalization" in an internal letter marking the company's tenth anniversary, aiming to reshape its future amidst ongoing losses [1] - The company's mid-2025 financial report revealed an adjusted net profit of 10.35 million yuan, a significant improvement from a loss of 161 million yuan in the same period last year, although a loss of 35.43 million yuan remains when accounting for international standards [1] - The improvement in cash flow is attributed to cost-cutting measures, including the elimination of low-margin SKUs and reduced sales expenses, rather than a fundamental change in the business model [1] User Metrics - During the pandemic, Keep's monthly active users surged from 29.73 million to 36.39 million, but by 2023, this number plummeted back to 29.76 million, and further declined to 22.49 million in the first half of 2025, representing a nearly 40% drop from peak levels [2][3] - Competitors like Douyin and Xiaohongshu continue to attract users with free fitness courses, with related content increasing by 40% in 2024, while Keep's engagement has waned significantly [3] Revenue Structure - The revenue structure remains tied to four legacy business segments, all of which are contracting: - Membership subscriptions fell by 22.9% year-on-year to 337 million yuan, with users expressing dissatisfaction over the perceived lack of value in membership [3] - Self-branded sports product revenue decreased by 20.9% to 397 million yuan, as pandemic-driven hardware demand proved to be a one-time spike [3] - Advertising revenue dropped to 88 million yuan, down 11%, indicating challenges in balancing user experience with advertising needs [3] Competitive Landscape - The fitness industry is becoming increasingly competitive, with offline chains like LeKe and Super Monkey expanding aggressively, while platforms like Douyin and Bilibili are offering daily fitness live streams at minimal cost [4][5] - Despite claiming to be the "industry leader," Keep's market share is diminishing as the overall market shrinks, leading to a situation where high market share equates to being a tall figure in a shallow pool [5]