50年铁律或成牛市最大障碍，降息后会跌到你出局再涨！

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance has led to an 85% probability of a rate cut in September, reminiscent of the market dynamics before the 2019 rate cut cycle [1] - Historical data shows that after the Fed pauses rate cuts for 5-12 months, there is a 90% chance that the S&P 500 will rise in the following year, with an average increase of 12.9% [2] - The S&P 500 index has shown varied returns in the months following rate cuts, with an average return of -0.9% in the next month but a median return of 14.5% in the following year [1] Group 2 - Many retail investors failed to outperform the index during the 2019-2020 global easing cycle due to poor timing in their trades, often buying high and selling low [3] - The market tends to punish those who believe they can outsmart it, as evidenced by instances where technical analysis led to incorrect predictions [3] Group 3 - The second quarter of 2025 saw significant market activity, with notable stocks experiencing rapid price movements [4] - Quantitative data has revealed that institutional and retail investors often act in concert, leading to price increases when both types of capital are active [16] Group 4 - The use of quantitative data is becoming increasingly important for retail investors in a market dominated by algorithmic trading, as traditional indicators may no longer suffice [18] - Historical patterns remain relevant, and understanding real-time buying and selling activity can provide a competitive edge for retail investors [19]