豆一、大豆&豆粕：价格走势及供需情况分析

Group 1 - The price of soybean is weak due to increased market supply pressure from policy-driven auction sales and poor demand performance [1] - The price difference between soybean and soybean meal is currently low, indicating a consolidation phase [1] - Import soybeans are performing strongly, supported by U.S. biodiesel policies that boost the soybean and soybean oil markets [1] Group 2 - China's soybean procurement schedule for November is low, with expectations of tighter supply in Q1 next year, necessitating attention to U.S. soybean exports to China [1] - Domestic soybeans need to be monitored for weather, policy changes, and the performance of imported soybeans in the short term [1] - Global oilseed strength driven by biodiesel policies is leading to increased soybean crushing, indicating a shift towards oil extraction [1] Group 3 - In Q4 and Q1 next year, the U.S. tariff policy is affecting Brazilian soybean sales, which are over 80%, despite high premiums [1] - The expected soybean arrival volume from August to October is 10 million tons, indicating sufficient supply for Q4, but potential shortages in Q1 next year [1] - Weather conditions in major U.S. soybean-producing areas are expected to be slightly cooler with less rainfall, posing challenges for new crop growth [1] Group 4 - Uncertainties in China-U.S. trade may lead to a continued divergence between strong external oil prices and weak meal prices, reducing the correlation between domestic soybean meal and U.S. soybeans [1] - If no trade agreement is reached by year-end, the soybean shortfall in Q4 and Q1 next year could strengthen soybean meal prices, leading to a cautious bullish outlook for soybean meal in the medium to long term [1]