King's Luck(SH:603369) Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-08-25 14:20Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinshiyuan, reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, aligning with the overall contraction in the liquor industry, raising concerns about its ability to meet its growth targets for the year [2][3]. Financial Performance - Jinshiyuan's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 6.95 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.228 billion yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 4.84% and 9.66% respectively [2]. - In Q2 2025, revenue dropped to 1.852 billion yuan, and net profit fell to 584.7 million yuan, with year-on-year decreases of 29.68% and 37.05% respectively [2][3]. Market Conditions - The second quarter traditionally sees a slowdown in liquor sales, exacerbated this year by the implementation of a "ban on alcohol" in May, which negatively impacted public and business consumption scenarios [2][3]. - Jinshiyuan's management believes that the impact of policies like the "ban on alcohol" is short-term, expecting a return to normal consumption patterns in the future [3]. Product Performance - The company's high-end product segment saw a significant decline, with revenue from products priced above 300 yuan dropping by 7.37% to 4.311 billion yuan [4]. - Mid-range products (100-300 yuan) showed slight growth, with revenue of 2.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.74%, while products priced between 50-100 yuan experienced a 10.04% decline [4]. Contract Liabilities - Contract liabilities, indicative of prepayments from distributors, decreased to 599 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 4.44%, attributed to seasonal factors [5]. Market Strategy - Jinshiyuan is primarily focused on the Jiangsu market, with limited expansion into other provinces, where revenue from external markets was 627 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.78% [5]. - The company has adjusted its market strategy to prioritize mid-range products over high-end offerings, although these changes have not yet mitigated the decline in quarterly performance [3][5]. Competitive Landscape - Jinshiyuan faces challenges from both local competitors and external brands, with its business model of focusing on mid-to-high-end products in a single province being tested amid current economic pressures and industry downturns [6]. - Despite the challenges, the company remains optimistic about a potential recovery in the industry, projecting a substantial improvement by the second half of 2026 [6].