中间价再创阶段新高 人民币有望重回6时代

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may weaken the dollar and support RMB strength [1][4][5]. Exchange Rate Movements - On August 25, the RMB central parity rate was significantly raised by 160 basis points to 7.1161 against the US dollar, marking the highest level since November 2024 [2][3]. - Both onshore and offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar, with the onshore rate reaching a high of 7.1478 during the day [2][3]. - As of 18:00 on August 25, the onshore RMB was at 7.1563, appreciating by 0.12%, while the offshore RMB was at 7.159, appreciating by 0.17% [2]. External Influences - The fluctuations in the foreign exchange market were largely influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent comments suggesting possible interest rate cuts in the coming months, which were interpreted as dovish signals [4][5]. - The dollar index experienced a significant drop of 0.94% on August 22, the largest single-day decline since April 2025, and has seen a cumulative decline of over 2% in August [4]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that if the Federal Reserve proceeds with interest rate cuts, the dollar may weaken further, alleviating external pressures on the RMB and potentially leading to increased capital inflows into Chinese securities [5][6]. - The RMB's appreciation trend is expected to continue, with September being a critical observation window for potential further strengthening [6][7]. Policy and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of market forces in determining exchange rates and aims to maintain stability in the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [7]. - Future developments in domestic growth policies and Sino-US trade negotiations are crucial factors to monitor for their impact on RMB exchange rates [7].