鲍威尔的国士考验（上）

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasizes the importance of patience amid increasing inflation pressures, maintaining a reasonable judgment on interest rate cuts [1] - The June FOMC dot plot indicates nearly half of the members expect two rate cuts within the year, while seven members oppose any cuts, showcasing historical divisions [1] - Powell asserts that the current monetary policy is appropriately positioned despite external pressures, including criticism from the White House regarding the Fed's renovations [1] Group 2: Tariffs and Economic Impact - The total tariffs collected by the U.S. in June amounted to $28 billion, with annualized tariffs potentially exceeding $300 billion and an effective tariff rate nearing 10% [2] - Tariff totals are projected to rise to $80 billion by 2024, with an increase of $220 billion attributed to the new trade war initiated by Trump [2] - The impact of tariffs on trade volume is significant, as exceeding a 25% tariff could lead to reduced trade and tax revenue [2] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - Tariffs and currency depreciation are equivalent policy tools that can influence international balance of payments by altering relative prices [3] - Tariffs not only directly raise prices but can also indirectly increase inflation by enhancing net exports and stimulating demand [3] Group 4: Immigration Policy and Inflation - The mainstream view suggests that immigration enforcement will reduce labor supply, thereby increasing inflation pressure, but this may not fully capture the demand dynamics [6] - Trump's immigration policies have led to a significant increase in deportations, with projections indicating nearly 1 million deportations by 2025, potentially impacting GDP and inflation [6] - The interaction between tariffs, immigration policy, and fiscal policy creates a complex inflationary environment for the U.S. economy, complicating future Federal Reserve decisions [6]