俄罗斯经济稳如磐石，制裁难掀波澜，能源优势撑起复苏希望

Core Insights - Despite escalating Western sanctions, the Russian economy has shown resilience, defying predictions of collapse by 2025 [2][3][9] - The interplay between energy exports and sanctions creates a complex "cat-and-mouse" game, with Russia finding ways to maintain its energy revenue despite restrictions [2][5] Economic Performance - In 2023, Russia's GDP grew by 3.6%, surpassing all developed economies, although this growth is less than in 2021 [3] - The Russian government faces significant budget pressures, leading to cuts in social welfare and rising living costs, with butter prices up 30% and potatoes up 65% [3][7] Industry Challenges - Russia is experiencing critical supply chain disruptions in key sectors such as chips, machinery, and high-end materials, with a 60% drop in automobile production in 2022 [5] - In the first half of 2024, 140,000 legal entities went bankrupt, predominantly in manufacturing, construction, and trade [5] Energy Dynamics - In 2022, oil and gas revenues accounted for 41% of Russia's total fiscal income, dropping to 27% in 2024, yet Russia continues to export oil to emerging markets like China and India [2][5] - The attempt to impose a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil has failed, with oil and gas revenues rising to 5.698 trillion rubles in the first half of 2024 [5][11] Political and Economic Strategy - The Kremlin prioritizes military spending over social expenditures, focusing on sustaining its war economy [5][11] - The long-term sustainability of this model remains uncertain, as it relies heavily on resource concentration and short-term fixes [11][13] Future Uncertainties - Russia faces long-term challenges such as population aging, technological gaps, and capital flight, which could lead to systemic risks [7][9] - The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with the potential for sudden shifts in strategy from both Russia and the West [16]