鲍威尔的决心与野心

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference signals a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy in response to rising unemployment risks and economic recession concerns [1][3][4] - Powell highlighted the current focus on the labor market rather than inflation, indicating that the Fed may prioritize easing monetary policy to address potential job losses, as evidenced by the July non-farm payroll data [1][2] - The market reacted positively to Powell's speech, with a notable rise in U.S. stock prices and a decline in the dollar index, suggesting increasing expectations for an interest rate cut [3] Group 2 - Powell's reference to the Fed's long-term goal of achieving a 2% average inflation target indicates a willingness to tolerate inflation above this level for a period, contrasting with previous commitments to strictly maintain the 2% target [2] - The upcoming non-farm payroll and inflation data releases on September 5 and 11 are expected to be critical in determining the timing of any interest rate cuts, with a high probability of a shift towards a more lenient monetary policy [3] - The current economic environment presents significant challenges for Powell, akin to those faced by past Fed chairs, as he navigates the complexities of monetary policy amid external pressures and economic uncertainties [4]