下游备货逐步启动 沪铝料偏强运行为主

Core Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum processing industry is showing signs of mild recovery, with an overall operating rate of 60% among leading companies, and expectations for improved performance as the consumption peak season approaches [1][5]. Group 1: Aluminum Production and Capacity - In July, China's electrolytic aluminum production reached 3.7214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.05% and a month-on-month increase of 3.11% [1]. - As of the end of July, the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.69 million tons, with an operating capacity of 43.90 million tons [1]. - The second batch of replacement projects in Yunnan has commenced production, which is expected to boost the industry's operating rate and lead to slight production growth [1]. Group 2: Aluminum Prices and Market Trends - The main aluminum futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has shown a rebound, approaching the 21,000 yuan/ton mark, with expectations for a strong oscillating price pattern due to slight supply increases and improved consumption outlook [1][5]. - As of August 22, the domestic electrolytic aluminum cost was 16,718.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.11 yuan/ton from the beginning of August, while profits stood at 3,991.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 201.11 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Import and Inventory Dynamics - In July, China's primary aluminum imports totaled 248,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.1% and a year-on-year increase of 91.2%, with Russia accounting for 76.85% of the total imports [2]. - As of August 22, aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 124,605 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.28%, marking a three-month high [2]. Group 4: Automotive Industry Impact - In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7%, despite a month-on-month decline due to seasonal factors [4]. - The automotive market is expected to continue growing in the second half of the year, supported by favorable policies and new model launches, with total vehicle sales projected to reach 32.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [4].