中金：不宜过度解读鲍威尔的“鸽”

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting is interpreted by the market as a "dovish" signal for monetary easing, but it does not provide strong guidance on the sustainability and extent of interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Powell's remarks clarify the Federal Reserve's "reaction function," indicating a tendency to lower interest rates when employment risks outweigh inflation risks [1] - There exists a dual risk of employment and inflation due to significantly higher tariff rates and tightened immigration policies, which complicates the monetary policy landscape [1] Group 2: Market Implications - If inflation risks surpass employment concerns, Powell may halt interest rate cuts using the same "reaction function," suggesting that the market should not view his speech as the beginning of a series of easing measures [1] - The potential for "stagflation" pressures from tariffs and immigration policies may create a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, hindering true monetary easing [1] - A decline in market risk appetite and increased volatility may follow as a result of these challenges in monetary policy [1]