天目湖(603136)：客流承压 费用管控推动利润率改善

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, but managed to improve its net profit and profitability through product structure optimization and effective cost control [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 250 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 55 million yuan, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2, the company reported revenue of 140 million yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 41 million yuan, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company's gross profit margin improved to 53.5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure optimization and high-value projects [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The scenic area business generated revenue of 140 million yuan in 1H25, down 9.9% year-on-year, primarily due to industry-wide pressure on visitor numbers, but the gross margin for this segment improved to 64.1%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The hotel business reported revenue of 70 million yuan in 1H25, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.2%, down 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, significantly impacted by reduced visitor numbers and declining industry average daily rates (ADR) [1][2]. Cost Control and Profitability - The company's sales and management expenses accounted for 6.5% and 14.2% of revenue, respectively, with sales expense ratio decreasing by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and management expense ratio decreasing by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year in Q2 [2]. - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 22.2%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant improvement in profitability driven by enhanced gross margin and effective cost control [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a one-stop tourism development model with ample project operation experience and a well-progressed diversified product structure development, leading to continuous improvement in profitability [2]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 110 million yuan, 130 million yuan, and 140 million yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 31x, 27x, and 25x, respectively, with a "recommended" rating [2].