学术界的阶层固化，比我们想象的更严重

Core Insights - A large-scale study covering 38 countries and tracking nearly 320,000 scientists over half a century reveals that the likelihood of achieving significant breakthroughs later in a scientific career is less than 1% [1][3][4] Group 1: Research Overview - The study was conducted by Marek Kwiek from Adam Mickiewicz University and Lukasz Szymula from the University of Colorado Boulder, focusing on how early career performance influences future academic success [2] - The research analyzed 320,564 active scientists who have published for at least 25 years, covering 16 major disciplines across 38 OECD countries, representing nearly 80% of eligible scientists globally [2] Group 2: Findings on Academic Mobility - The study concludes that there is very low mobility in the global scientific productivity hierarchy, with early career performance largely determining long-term academic trajectories [3][4] - Scientists' productivity levels are established early in their careers, with over 80% of those in the top 10% during mid-career having already been in the top three productivity levels early on [4][5] Group 3: Probability of Career Advancement - The probability of a scientist in the lowest productivity tier during early career advancing to the top tier in mid-career is less than 1%, with only 0.51% of mid-career top 10% scientists coming from the lowest tier [5][6] - The likelihood of moving from the lowest to the highest productivity tier increases slightly from 0.51% to 1.36% from mid to late career, but remains very low overall [6] Group 4: Factors Influencing Academic Success - Early success is a critical predictor of future achievements, with a "reputation cycle" where high-quality publications lead to funding and resources, further enhancing productivity [7][8] - Working at top-ranked research institutions can increase a scientist's chances of success by 30% to 50%, particularly in the medical field [8] Group 5: Gender Disparities - Gender remains a significant variable, with male scientists having a higher probability of entering the top productivity ranks compared to female scientists, especially in life sciences [9] Group 6: Discipline-Specific Insights - There are differences in mobility across disciplines, with social sciences showing slightly higher upward mobility compared to STEM fields [10] - In fields like mathematics and physics, top scholars maintain their positions more consistently, indicating a strong correlation between early talent and long-term success [11][12]