期货日报：美联储“鸽”派转向，贵金属价格上行

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, is experiencing a strong performance due to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, with gold prices showing reduced sensitivity to these changes while silver remains highly responsive [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold futures saw a slight increase of 0.46%, while silver futures rose by 1.89% [1]. - Analysts indicate that silver's price is significantly influenced by industrial demand and domestic macroeconomic policies, leading to greater volatility compared to gold [1]. - The strong performance of copper is also positively impacting silver prices, as both metals often exhibit correlated price movements [1]. Group 2: Silver Demand and Market Sentiment - The solar photovoltaic industry's explosive growth has driven silver demand, with silver paste demand accounting for over 20% of total silver demand [2]. - The global silver supply-demand gap is projected to exceed 5,000 tons by 2025, indicating a robust market outlook for silver [2]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 100 to below 90, suggesting a valuation opportunity for silver, attracting increased investment [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Upcoming U.S. PCE data is a focal point for the market, with expectations that core PCE year-on-year growth will decline to around 3.0% [3]. - The market has fully priced in expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with significant declines in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [3]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring Federal Reserve officials' statements and the dot plot for future monetary policy direction [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold and Silver - In the context of geopolitical instability and ongoing central bank gold purchases, gold prices are expected to maintain a bullish trend [4][5]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions continues to support gold's safe-haven appeal [5]. - The correlation between gold and other asset classes remains low, suggesting that gold can serve as a valuable diversification tool in investment portfolios [5].