Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Poly Property (06049) unchanged, expecting a 5% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-26, reaching 1.55 billion and 1.62 billion yuan respectively, while maintaining an outperform rating for the industry [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Growth - The basic property management business drives overall growth, with the revenue share of this segment accounting for 70-80%, showing a year-on-year growth of 13%, establishing the main tone for overall revenue growth [2] - The company reported a 7% year-on-year increase in revenue for 1H25, amounting to 8.4 billion yuan, and a net profit of 890 million yuan, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth, in line with expectations [1][2] Group 2: Contract Expansion and Project Structure - The new third-party project contract amount increased by 17% year-on-year to 1.4 billion yuan, with growth achieved across residential, public service, and commercial office sectors [3] - The proportion of new contracts in core 50 cities increased by 5 percentage points year-on-year to 85%, with the share of core non-residential sectors rising to nearly 80% [3] Group 3: Accounts Management - As of the end of 1H25, trade receivables grew by 10% year-on-year, with over 90% of the amounts due within one year, indicating a healthy aging structure [4] - The overall collection rate remained stable, with public service business collection rates increasing, while residential and commercial office sectors saw a decline [4] Group 4: High-Quality Development and Shareholder Returns - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantage in core sectors, driving overall revenue growth through high-quality project expansion and conversion, while also focusing on internal efficiency and maintaining stable profit margins [5] - The management aims to achieve a target of 3 billion yuan in annual saturated contract amounts and maintains its revenue and net profit targets for the year [5] - The company has consistently increased its dividend payout ratio over the past three years, from 20% in 2021 to 50% in 2024, and is expected to continue its proactive shareholder return policy [5]
中金：维持保利物业(06049)跑赢行业评级 升目标价至42.7港元