施罗德投资：美联储9月降息机会只有50%，维持全年按兵不动预测

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference suggest a potential for interest rate cuts in September, although he acknowledges increasing downside risks in the labor market and warns that tariffs could lead to more persistent inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Outlook - Powell's comments indicate that the decision on interest rates in September will depend on the employment and price data from August [1] - Market interpretations of Powell's statements suggest a high probability of a rate cut, with futures reflecting a 90% chance of a 25 basis point reduction [1] - Economic Indicators - Despite the market's interpretation, Powell emphasized the importance of future data, leading to a belief that the actual chance of a rate cut is around 50% [1] - The company maintains a prediction that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold for the rest of the year [1]