业绩规模双杀，许文波与东方基金的“七年之痒”

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Xu Wenbo, the Deputy General Manager and Equity Investment Director of Dongfang Fund, has significantly declined, leading to a drastic reduction in the management scale of his funds, with only four funds remaining under his management and a total scale of just over 1 billion [2][4]. Group 1: Performance and Scale - Xu Wenbo's funds have shown a worrying downward trend in both scale and performance over his seven years at Dongfang Fund, with flagship products like Dongfang Selected Mixed and Dongfang Long Mixed reflecting this situation [5]. - The management scale of Dongfang Selected Mixed has decreased from 1.245 billion units to approximately 526 million units, indicating that more than half of the investors have exited [6]. - Dongfang Long Mixed has performed even worse, with its scale shrinking from 389 million units to 147 million units [7]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy and Challenges - Xu Wenbo has developed a comprehensive investment framework emphasizing long-term value investment and fundamental analysis, focusing on business models and cash flow generation [10][13]. - Despite having a solid theoretical foundation, Xu's investment strategies have not translated into actual performance, with a failed combination of consumer and technology stocks in 2021 leading to poor results [11][13]. - His risk management capabilities have been questioned, as some equity products he managed experienced significant drawdowns during market downturns, failing to achieve absolute return targets [13][14]. Group 3: Talent and Systemic Issues - Xu Wenbo's challenges reflect a broader talent crisis at Dongfang Fund, which has a long-standing preference for fixed income over equity products and has seen a significant loss of star fund managers [15]. - The promotion of Xu to Deputy General Manager despite poor performance has been interpreted as a sign of talent shortages within the company [15]. - The company's incentive measures have not effectively addressed the talent issue, making it difficult for smaller firms to compete with larger companies for skilled professionals [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - To address the dual pressures of poor performance and shrinking scale, Xu Wenbo and Dongfang Fund need to find a way to break the deadlock [16]. - It is suggested that Xu should focus on his strengths and reduce management responsibilities, although finding suitable replacements is challenging due to talent shortages [16]. - Dongfang Fund must reassess its research and investment strategy, moving towards a more systematic approach to reduce reliance on individual fund managers [16].