鲍威尔的冒险赌注：9月降息将“温和无刺激”

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a potential interest rate cut in September to support a struggling labor market while preventing runaway inflation [1][2] - The current labor market is described as a "weird balance," with increasing concerns about employment prospects despite stable unemployment rates [1] - Economists believe that a 25 basis point rate cut may not drastically change the economic trajectory but could positively impact market confidence [1][2] Group 2 - Revised employment data shows that the U.S. economy has added an average of only 35,000 jobs per month since June, significantly below the projected 168,000 for 2024 [2] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve to control inflation and maintain a healthy job market is complicated by the White House's decision to impose tariffs on imported goods [2] - Powell's recent statements indicate a shift in focus towards urgent support for the labor market, despite previous indications to prioritize inflation control [2] Group 3 - Future interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 will depend on changes in the unemployment rate over the coming months [3] - Powell maintains that rate cuts are not intended to stimulate the economy, as the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% remains above normal economic cycle levels [3]