Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains a positive outlook on COFCO Joycome (01610), projecting net profits of 760 million and 1.15 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a target price increase of 39% to 2.5 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% [1] Group 1: Pig Farming and Fresh Meat Business - The pig farming segment is experiencing high-quality growth, with a 68.7% year-on-year revenue increase to 4.494 billion yuan in 1H25, driven by an 83% increase in slaughter volume to 2.899 million heads [2] - The fresh pork segment shows significant improvement, with revenue rising 21% year-on-year to 2.54 billion yuan in 1H25, and brand revenue share increasing by 4.5 percentage points to 31.2% [2] - The sales volume of branded boxed pork surged by 47% to 27.79 million boxes, while sales of flaxseed pork increased by 123% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Cost Management and Financial Health - The company is effectively reducing farming costs, with total costs projected at 13.0-13.5 yuan per kilogram in Q2 2025, and further optimization expected in H2 2025 due to improved breeding systems and operational efficiencies [3] - The financial position remains robust, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.2% at the end of 1H25, reflecting a slight increase due to the acquisition of COFCO Jiahua [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company is exploring a light-asset farming model, which is expected to enhance the elasticity of slaughter volumes, with projections of 5-6 million heads for 2025 [4] - The brand strategy is yielding results, with efforts to enhance product quality and expand sales channels, indicating a gradual increase in profit contributions from the fresh meat segment [4]
中金：维持中粮家佳康(01610)跑赢行业评级 升目标价至2.5港元