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农林牧渔行业周报(20251110-20251114):猪价持续弱势,去化逻辑或逐步加强-20251120
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-11-20 09:02
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]
开源证券:年前生猪供给压力逐步积累 猪价低位运行去化延续
智通财经网· 2025-11-12 06:27
Core Insights - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a significant decline in the average selling price of live pigs in October 2025, with a decrease of 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year, suggesting ongoing pressure on pig prices in the near future [1] - The slaughter volume in October 2025 was 5.0352 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55%, indicating a temporary oversupply situation [1] - The report highlights that the proportion of large pigs being sold is lower than in the same period in 2024, while the inventory of large pigs is increasing, suggesting a potential easing of supply in the future [1] Industry Overview - The gross white price difference as of November 6, 2025, was 4.18 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.08 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 0.84 yuan/kg, indicating mixed market conditions [2] - The national frozen product inventory rate was reported at 20.03%, up 4.06 percentage points year-on-year, which may exert downward pressure on future pig prices due to high inventory levels [2] - In October 2025, the industry faced significant losses, with self-breeding and self-raising operations losing 167.97 yuan per head, reflecting a worsening financial situation for producers [3] - The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month as of November 7, 2025, indicating a trend of reduction in breeding capacity [3] Company Performance - In October 2025, 12 listed pig companies reported a total of 16.9469 million heads sold, a year-on-year increase of 29.29%, with individual companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing significant increases in their sales volumes [4] - The average selling price for major listed pig companies fell month-on-month, with prices for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs decreasing by 10.3% and 12.2% respectively [5] - The average weight of pigs sold by major companies also saw a decline, with Dabeinong reporting an average weight of 110.1 kg per head, down 18.8 kg from the previous month [4]
农林牧渔行业点评报告:年前生猪供给压力逐步积累,猪价低位运行去化延续
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-11-11 15:19
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing increasing supply pressure of live pigs as the year-end approaches, with low prices continuing to decline. In October 2025, the national average selling price of live pigs was 11.69 yuan/kg, down 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year. The slaughter volume in October was 5.0352 million heads, up 10.40% month-on-month and 9.55% year-on-year. The actual output in October exceeded the planned output by 5.70%, but the planned output for November is expected to decrease by 3.27% compared to October [3][14][24] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The supply pressure of live pigs is gradually accumulating as the year-end approaches, with low prices continuing to decline. The average selling price in October 2025 was 11.69 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease [3][14] - The slaughter volume in October was 5.0352 million heads, indicating a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55% [3][14] Market Dynamics - The proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) in the slaughter structure was 4.89%, which is lower than the same period in 2024. The stock of large pigs is expected to increase, leading to a more relaxed supply in the future [4][18] - The winter pork consumption is expected to improve, which may drive the price difference between lean and fatty pork. However, the high inventory rate of frozen products may suppress future prices [4][19][23] Financial Performance - In October, the industry faced deepening losses, with self-breeding losses reaching 167.97 yuan per head. The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month [5][24] - The average selling price of major listed pig companies decreased month-on-month, with prices ranging from 10.97 to 11.87 yuan/kg, reflecting declines of 9.9% to 13.9% [6][7][34]
中粮家佳康(01610.HK)运营快报:10月生猪出栏58.5万头
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-10 13:17
Core Insights - COFCO Jiajia Kang (01610.HK) reported operational updates for October 2025, indicating a total of 585,000 pigs were sold during the month [1] - The average selling price for commercial pigs was 11.58 RMB per kilogram [1] - Fresh pork sales reached 32,300 tons in October [1] Company Performance - The number of pigs sold in October reflects the company's operational scale and market demand [1] - The average price per kilogram suggests stable pricing in the pork market, which may impact revenue [1] - The volume of fresh pork sold indicates the company's market penetration and consumer preference [1]
中粮家佳康10月生猪出栏量58.5万头 环比增长25%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-10 11:27
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that COFCO Joycome (01610) reported an increase in pig production and sales metrics for October 2025, indicating positive growth in its operations [1] Group 2 - The company achieved a pig output of 585,000 heads in October 2025, representing a 25% increase compared to the previous period [1] - The average selling price of commercial pigs was 11.58 yuan per kilogram [1] - Fresh pork sales reached 32,300 tons, with brand revenue accounting for 34.52% of the fresh pork business [1]
中粮家佳康(01610)10月生猪出栏量58.5万头 环比增长25%
智通财经网· 2025-11-10 11:24
Core Viewpoint - COFCO Jiajia Kang (01610) reported a significant increase in pig production and sales, indicating strong operational performance in the fresh pork market [1] Group 1: Production and Sales Performance - The company achieved a pig output of 585,000 heads in October 2025, representing a 25% increase compared to the previous month [1] - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 11.58 yuan per kilogram [1] - Fresh pork sales reached 32,300 tons, with brand revenue accounting for 34.52% of the fresh pork business [1]
中粮家佳康(01610) - 自愿公告 2025年10月运营快报
2025-11-10 11:11
(於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) (股份代號:01610) 自願公告 2025年10月運營快報 此乃中糧家佳康食品有限公司(「本公司」)作出的自願公告。 本公司董事會(「董事會」)謹此宣佈,本公司及其附屬公司(「本集團」)2025年10月主要運 營數據(未經審核)如下: 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責,對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 1 「生鮮豬肉業務中品牌收入佔比」指品牌生鮮豬肉業務收入除以生鮮豬肉業務收入。 務請注意,上述所有數字均未經審核,亦未經本公司核數師確認,或會予以調整並有待最終確認。 本公司股東及潛在投資者於買賣本公司股份時務請審慎行事。 1 承董事會命 中糧家佳康食品有限公司 高翔 主席兼執行董事 中國北京,2025年11月10日 於本公告日期,董事會成員包括:董事會主席兼執行董事高翔博士,執行董事張楠博士,非執行董 事陳志剛先生及王國新先生,獨立非執行董事傅廷美先生、李恆健先生及鞠建東博士。 2 | | 生豬出欄量(千頭) | | 商品大豬銷售均價 ...
中粮家佳康(01610) - 截至二零二五年十月三十一日止月份股份发行人的证券变动月报表
2025-11-03 10:14
股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致:香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中糧家佳康食品有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01610 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 50,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.000001 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 50,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.000001 | USD | | 50,000 | 本月底法定 ...
港股食品饮料板块投资启示
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2025-10-31 14:20
Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the Hong Kong food and beverage sector, indicating potential investment opportunities in resilient companies within the industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The report outlines six phases of the Hang Seng Consumer Staples Index, highlighting the cyclical nature of the industry and the impact of external factors such as economic conditions and policy changes on consumer demand [3][4][28]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying resilient stocks in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the upstream farming and downstream dairy product industries, as they are expected to benefit from market dynamics and policy support [6][7][53]. Summary by Sections Phase Review of the Hang Seng Consumer Staples Index - Phase 1: Downward trend due to slowing GDP and reduced consumer demand, leading to a decline in the index [3]. - Phase 2: Strong recovery driven by global economic recovery and improved earnings of leading consumer staples companies [3]. - Phase 3: Period of volatility influenced by trade tensions and tightening global liquidity [3]. - Phase 4: Rapid increase in the index due to the rigid demand for essential consumption during the pandemic [3]. - Phase 5: Continuous decline influenced by repeated pandemic disruptions and rising raw material costs [4]. - Phase 6: Valuation recovery initiated by domestic consumption policies and inflow of long-term capital [4][28]. Investment Opportunities in the Food and Beverage Sector - Upstream farming opportunities are highlighted, with a focus on the dairy and beef sectors, where prices are expected to stabilize and rise due to supply constraints and recovering demand [6][44]. - Downstream dairy product opportunities are supported by recent policies aimed at boosting demand and improving market competition, which will benefit leading companies in the sector [7][53]. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Yurun Agriculture (09858.HK) and Modern Farming (01117.HK) are recommended for their strong cash flow and potential to benefit from the anticipated recovery in raw milk prices [9][57]. - The report suggests that policy support will create upward momentum for companies like Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) and H&H International Holdings (01112.HK), which are positioned to capitalize on market opportunities [10][57]. - The potential for industry restructuring and the emergence of leading companies is noted, particularly in the coconut water segment, with recommendations for IFBH (06603.HK) [11][58].
退役军人“零距离”实地探岗 打通就业“最后一公里”
Nei Meng Gu Ri Bao· 2025-10-20 15:24
Core Viewpoint - The event organized by the Chifeng City Veterans Affairs Bureau aims to enhance employment opportunities for veterans by facilitating direct engagement with quality companies in the region [1][5]. Group 1: Employment Opportunities - The event included visits to three companies: Inner Mongolia Mengdu Sheep Industry, COFCO Jiajia Kang, and China Life Insurance, providing veterans with insights into potential job roles [1][3]. - Veterans were able to observe production processes, ask questions about job responsibilities, work intensity, and salary, thereby alleviating concerns about job compatibility [3][5]. Group 2: Company Engagement - Inner Mongolia Mengdu Sheep Industry showcased its meat processing, packaging, and storage processes, allowing veterans to understand the operational aspects of the industry [3]. - COFCO Jiajia Kang focused on roles related to breeding technology, supply chain management, and quality inspection, explaining job responsibilities and growth opportunities [3]. - China Life Insurance introduced its corporate culture and career paths in the financial sector, helping veterans gain a new perspective on financial industry roles [3]. Group 3: Future Initiatives - The Chifeng City Veterans Affairs Bureau plans to continue focusing on the employment needs of veterans by integrating more quality company resources and conducting personalized employment matching activities [5]. - The initiative aims to bridge the gap in veteran employment, ensuring they can successfully transition into new roles [5].