美股软件板块困境何时反转？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. software sector has been underperforming due to macroeconomic turbulence and slow AI integration, but the narrative of "AI destroying software" lacks fundamental support. The company predicts a rebound in the software sector similar to the second half of 2024, driven by interest rate cuts and the realization of AI revenue [1][9]. Group 1: Reasons for Underperformance - The weak performance of the U.S. software sector is attributed to multiple factors, including high volatility suppressing traditional software spending and concerns over economic stagnation [2][3]. - Traditional software companies are experiencing delays in AI product deployment, while startup AI firms are rapidly increasing revenue from a low base [3]. - The narrative of "AI consuming software" has intensified market fears regarding traditional software companies [3]. Group 2: AI Algorithm Progress - The average iteration speed of overseas large models has improved from six months to approximately four months since 2025, indicating rapid advancements in AI capabilities [4]. - Despite improvements, large models still have significant room for growth, particularly in complex tasks like system design and new feature development [4][5]. Group 3: Impact of AI on Software Sector - The core barriers in application software remain high-quality data and industry knowledge, leading to increased market concentration in complex business logic areas [6]. - The foundational software sector is expected to see growth driven by the need for data unification and governance as AI applications become more prevalent [6]. - The information security sector is experiencing increased demand for AI-driven protection solutions [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current macroeconomic environment and performance cycles are similar to those expected in the second half of 2024, with anticipated interest rate cuts and clearer tariff frameworks [7]. - The deployment of AI products is expected to begin reflecting in revenues by Q3/Q4, with October's Q3 earnings reports serving as a key observation point [7].