dbg盾博：美联储即将重启的降息，将会更加利好股市

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that historical cases show a strong correlation between the Federal Reserve's shift from a tightening cycle to rate cuts and subsequent increases in the S&P 500 index, with 10 out of 11 instances resulting in market gains within a year [1] - Market focus has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the magnitude and pace of rate cuts," with traders increasing the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September from 75% to 85% [3] - The upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the July Personal Consumption Expenditures index and August non-farm payrolls, will significantly influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [3] Group 2 - There are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, as highlighted by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's dissenting views [4] - The VIX index's divergence from the S&P 500 suggests that investors may be underestimating the complexities of policy adjustments, particularly if rate cut expectations shift from 25 to 50 basis points [4] - Geopolitical risks, global supply chain fluctuations, and emerging market debt vulnerabilities are more likely to influence changes in rate cut decisions [5]