黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.8.26）

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations on August 25, starting with a decline to around 3359 before rebounding and fluctuating between 3371 and 3362 during the European session, ultimately closing with a small bearish candle [1] - The U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4 basis points to 3.728% and the 10-year yield rising by 1.3 basis points to 4.271%, which may create competitive pressure on gold [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium indicated rising risks in the U.S. labor market and persistent inflation pressures, leading to an increase in the probability of a September rate cut to 84% from 61.9% a month ago, which initially supported gold prices [2] - The upcoming PCE data is crucial, with expectations for the core inflation rate to rise to 2.9% by the end of 2023; results above expectations could challenge the urgency for rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [2][3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to further influence the Fed's policy direction, with signs of weakening in the U.S. labor market, as indicated by a decline in new single-family home sales [2] - A combination of rising PCE inflation and weak non-farm employment data could lead the Fed to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, which may create mixed signals for gold [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold has entered a high-level consolidation phase since peaking at 3500 in April, with a triangular convergence pattern indicating a balance of forces in the market [5] - The current support and resistance levels for gold are identified at 3320 (support) and 3416-3426 (resistance), with a focus on maintaining positions within this range until a clear breakout occurs [5][6] Group 5: Key Levels and Trading Strategy - The short-term moving averages are showing upward momentum, suggesting a potential for bullish movement if prices remain above the support zone of 3357-3347 [6] - The four-hour analysis indicates that the key levels to watch are 3409 (resistance) and 3311 (support), with a breakout above 3409 signaling further upward movement [8]