越南真的需要高铁吗？

Core Viewpoint - The Vietnamese government prioritizes the construction of the North-South high-speed railway project, which has faced increasing skepticism regarding its feasibility and funding since its approval in November 2022 [1][2]. Funding Issues - The North-South high-speed railway project is estimated to cost over $60 billion, excluding potential cost overruns, raising questions about funding sources [5]. - The Vietnamese government plans to involve private entities like Long Hai Group for partial funding, while also seeking domestic and international financing with government guarantees [5][6]. Technical Challenges - Vietnam lacks the technical expertise in high-speed rail, making it difficult to find partners for technology transfer and raising concerns about local companies' ability to absorb and utilize new technologies [8]. Operational Costs - There are concerns about whether the railway will generate sufficient passenger traffic to cover operational costs and repay loans, potentially leading to financial losses [10]. Alternative Proposals - A proposed alternative includes developing urban rail and highway networks in the Red River Delta and Mekong Delta, upgrading existing rail lines without pursuing high-speed standards, and enhancing airport and port infrastructure for better connectivity [12]. Geographical Considerations - Vietnam's unique geography, with densely populated areas at both ends of the country, presents challenges for the high-speed rail project, as it primarily connects only Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City [13][20]. Comparison with China - Unlike China's extensive rail network connecting multiple major cities, Vietnam's high-speed railway would mainly serve two large cities and one medium-sized city, limiting its potential passenger base [18][20]. Freight Transportation Advantages - Vietnam's geographical advantages favor a freight transport model based on "sea transport + short-distance rail/road," which may be more cost-effective than constructing a new railway [21]. Current Railway Limitations - The existing North-South railway is outdated, with long travel times, and even upgrading it to electrified standards would require significant investment [25][26]. Air Travel Saturation - The Hanoi-Ho Chi Minh City air route is highly saturated, with over 10.9 million tickets sold in 2023, making it one of the busiest domestic routes globally [28][30]. Risks of Air Travel Dependency - The reliance on air travel poses risks due to weather, fuel price fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions, which can disrupt the transportation system [34][35][36]. Strategic Importance of High-Speed Rail - The North-South high-speed railway is viewed as a critical infrastructure project that would enhance national integration and reduce dependency on Western aviation supply chains [42][45][47].