今世缘(603369)：报表释放压力业绩低于预期

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 6.95 billion and a net profit of 2.23 billion, representing year-on-year decreases of 4.84% and 9.46% respectively [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant drop in revenue to 1.85 billion, down 29.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.585 billion, down 37.1% year-on-year, indicating performance below market expectations [1] - Due to ongoing external demand pressures, the company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 3.05 billion, 3.23 billion, and 3.54 billion, which are 10.6%, 5.9%, and 9.4% lower than previous estimates [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2025, the company's liquor revenue was 1.802 billion, a decrease of 30.9% year-on-year, with the A+ product category generating 1.14 billion, down 32.1% [2] - The provincial revenue was 1.611 billion, down 32.2% year-on-year, while the out-of-province revenue was 0.191 billion, down 17.8% [2] - Specific regional performances showed significant declines, with the Huai'an area down 30%, Nanjing down 33.7%, and Suzhou down 38.7% [2] Profitability and Cash Flow - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 31.6%, a decrease of 3.69 percentage points, primarily due to increased expenses and declining revenue [3] - The gross margin was 72.8%, down 0.21 percentage points, while the sales expense ratio increased to 19%, up 6.8 percentage points [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities was -0.352 billion, compared to 0.245 billion in the same period last year [3] Market Expansion and Performance Catalysts - The company is experiencing better-than-expected progress in expanding its out-of-province market, which may serve as a catalyst for stock performance [4]