Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-26 02:45Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that the liquor stocks are on the verge of a bottom recovery in asset pricing, despite a weak recovery in the fundamentals of liquor consumption. The overall trend of improving fundamentals has been confirmed, suggesting a focus on the rebound opportunities in the liquor sector, particularly for companies like Kweichow Moutai (600519) and Wuliangye (000858) that have consistently increased market share during the cycle [1]. Group 1 - Since 2000, the liquor industry has experienced four cycles: 1999-2003, 2008-2009, 2012-2015, and 2022-present. The cycle from 2013 to 2015 was notably deep and similar to the current macroeconomic situation, prompting a review of capital pricing changes during that period to identify potential bottom recovery windows for liquor stocks [2]. - The analysis of the 2013-2015 liquor cycle revealed that liquor stock prices typically bottom out approximately two quarters before the fundamentals confirm a recovery, indicating a lead time in market reactions to fundamental changes [2]. Group 2 - Two key changes in expectations influenced the asset pricing of liquor stocks during the previous cycle: the stabilization of terminal sales around the 2014 Dragon Boat Festival and the improvement in the financial health of liquor companies as indicated by their semi-annual reports. Additionally, the initiation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect reform in 2014 improved liquidity expectations for consumer stocks, attracting long-term capital to the liquor sector [3]. - The current liquor cycle is seen as a combination of the liquor sector's own cycle and the macroeconomic cycle. Positive trends are observed in both demand and liquidity, with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays indicating a clearer upward trend in liquor demand, alongside significant liquidity improvements in the A-share market, which reached a 10-year high in August 2025 [3].