邓正红能源软实力：供应中断恐慌与增产博弈形成溢价 风险偏好改善油价走高

Core Insights - International oil prices have surged due to geopolitical risks, with a premium of $3.20 per barrel attributed to fears of Russian supply disruptions and OPEC's production increase dynamics [1][3] - The market is shifting towards a new paradigm of pricing based on geopolitical risks, influenced by sanctions and military actions affecting oil supply [1][5] Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. has threatened sanctions against Russia if no progress is made towards peace in Ukraine, and may impose tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil [2] - Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have raised concerns about supply chain disruptions, leading to a reassessment of Russia's daily export risk of 5 million barrels [3][4] OPEC's Role - OPEC's reversal of production cuts is expected to alleviate concerns over Russian supply interruptions, potentially adding millions of barrels to the market [2][3] - Historical data suggests that similar geopolitical tensions have previously led to significant price fluctuations, such as a $7 swing during the Crimea crisis [3] Soft Power Model Insights - The "Deng Zhenghong Soft Power Model" quantifies the impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices, indicating that current premiums reflect expectations of supply disruptions lasting 8-12 weeks [3][4] - The model identifies various soft power influences on oil prices, including U.S. sanctions (+$2.1), Ukrainian attacks (+$1.8), OPEC's production increase (-$1.5), and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts (+$0.8) [4] Future Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for oil prices have been outlined: 1. Base scenario (45% probability): Sanctions limited to secondary financial institutions, maintaining 80% of Russian exports, with a soft power premium of $2-3 per barrel until late October [4] 2. Escalation scenario (30% probability): Tariffs on India lead to a price surge of $5-7 per barrel, with WTI potentially exceeding $90 [4] 3. Easing scenario (25% probability): Diplomatic breakthroughs reduce premiums to below $1, though demand-side recession risks remain [4] Market Paradigm Shift - The market is transitioning from a traditional supply-demand framework to one dominated by geopolitical risk pricing, with soft power factors accounting for 37% of oil price influences by 2025, up from 22% in 2021 [5]