百利天恒遭机构减持背后：波动收益是否扭曲报表 定增事项是否压制股价

Core Viewpoint - The decline in institutional investor holdings in Baili Tianheng raises questions about the company's valuation and the quality of its BD (business development) revenue, which appears weaker than its peers despite a high market research rate [1][3][10]. Financial Performance - Baili Tianheng reported a significant drop in revenue for the first half of 2025, achieving 171 million yuan, a decrease of 96.92% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.118 billion yuan, down 123.96% from the previous year [1][5]. - The company had a remarkable performance in the previous year, with revenue of 5.553 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.666 billion yuan [1]. Institutional Holdings - Institutional investors reduced their holdings in Baili Tianheng, with the proportion of fund investors dropping from 50.50% at the end of 2024 to 30.43% by mid-2025 [3][4]. Revenue Recognition Issues - The decline in performance is attributed to high R&D investments and the one-time recognition of revenue from a collaboration agreement with BMS, which involved an upfront payment of 800 million USD [5][6]. - The upfront payment accounted for over 90% of the company's revenue for 2024, raising concerns about the sustainability of future earnings [6][7]. R&D Expenditures - Baili Tianheng's R&D expenses have been increasing, with 1.039 billion yuan spent in the first half of 2025, a 90.74% increase year-on-year [7][8]. - The company has multiple ongoing clinical trials for its drug Iza-bren, which is positioned as a potential cornerstone treatment for various cancers [8][9]. Valuation Concerns - The market often values companies based on "potential total transaction amounts," but the actual realization of milestone payments is uncertain, with historical data showing low achievement rates for such payments in the biopharmaceutical sector [9][10]. - Baili Tianheng's market research rate is significantly higher than its peers, raising questions about whether its valuation is overstated [10][11]. Capital Increase and Stock Price Pressure - The company is proceeding with a capital increase to raise up to 3.764 billion yuan, which may exert further pressure on its stock price [11][12]. - The pricing for the capital increase is set at no less than 80% of the average trading price over the previous 20 trading days, potentially limiting upside for existing shareholders [11].