美联储政策框架剧变，9月降息只是前菜，真正大招在2026年

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, as indicated by Chairman Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, which has led to a positive reaction in global capital markets [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework Changes - The Federal Reserve is undergoing a fundamental adjustment in its monetary policy framework, shifting from an "average inflation targeting" approach to a "flexible inflation targeting" system, which is expected to have significant implications for policy direction beyond September [3][5]. - The "average inflation targeting" framework considers the average inflation over a period, which could limit the space for rate cuts if past high inflation rates are included in calculations. In contrast, the "flexible inflation targeting" focuses on current inflation levels, allowing for rate cuts if present inflation shows significant decline [5][9]. Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Dynamics - Current inflation rates have decreased from a peak of 9% to around 3%, suggesting that the existing federal funds rate of 4.25-4.5% may have room for adjustment to better align with current inflation levels [7][9]. - The potential for a significant drop in inflation in 2026 due to high base effects could provide further justification for rate cuts, as the annual inflation rate may approach the 2% target with the new framework's focus on current data [9][11]. Group 3: Future Implications - The adjustment in the monetary policy framework is seen as paving the way for future easing measures, with the current environment being favorable for rate cuts, supported by both the new framework and anticipated improvements in inflation data [11].