莫迪即将赴华参会，印度外长主动摊牌，不要把中印关系想得太紧密

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. on India has led to a deterioration in U.S.-India relations, while India is seeking to improve its relationship with China, driven by both external pressures and its own interests [1][2]. Trade Tariff Impact - The U.S. has raised tariffs on India from an initial 25% to 50%, making India one of the countries with the highest tariffs globally, alongside Brazil [2]. - If the 50% tariff is implemented, India's exports to the U.S. could decline by 60%, significantly impacting its economy, as exports to the U.S. were approximately $87 billion last year, accounting for 2.2% of India's GDP [2]. Shift in Response and Cooperation - In response to U.S. trade pressures, India is looking to China as a key partner, indicating a shift in its foreign policy [3]. - The improvement in Sino-Indian relations is not solely due to U.S. actions; prior engagements, such as the meeting between Indian and Chinese leaders at the BRICS summit in October last year, laid the groundwork for better relations [3]. Multi-Dimensional Factors in Sino-Indian Relations - High-level visits between India and China have increased, with Indian officials visiting China and Prime Minister Modi planning to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit [5]. - India's foreign minister's acknowledgment of Taiwan as part of China during discussions with his Chinese counterpart indicates a potential shift in India's stance towards China [6]. Economic Considerations - The deterioration of Sino-Indian relations in the past four years has resulted in significant economic losses for India, including a $15 billion loss in the electronics manufacturing sector and a drop of 85% in foreign investment inflows [8]. - India's high military spending, which constitutes 2.5% of its GDP, has also been a financial burden exacerbated by tensions with China [8]. Cautious Expectations and "Speculative Diplomacy" - Despite improving relations, India has clarified its stance on Taiwan, indicating a cautious approach to its diplomatic engagement with China [12]. - India's foreign minister's remarks suggest a desire for India to maintain its autonomy in international relations, avoiding being a pawn in larger geopolitical games [13].