为更多降息铺路？美联储“三把手”：低利率时代远未结束！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy's neutral interest rate may not differ significantly from pre-pandemic levels, as structural factors that suppressed rates have not disappeared [2][3]. Group 1: Neutral Interest Rate Insights - Williams stated that the global trends in population and productivity growth that previously lowered the neutral rate (r*) have not reversed [3]. - The estimated neutral interest rate for early 2025 shows no significant rebound, indicating that the era of low r* is far from over [3]. - The Federal Reserve's median estimate for the neutral rate is currently at 3%, higher than the pre-pandemic level of 2.5%, with a range between 2.5% and nearly 4% [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Rate Decisions - Market consensus indicates an over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with upcoming data likely to influence the trajectory of future rate cuts [4]. - Analysts speculate that the median dot plot for 2025 may suggest only two rate cuts for the year, but changes in risk dynamics could lead to a downward adjustment in the median point, indicating a total cut of 75 basis points by year-end [4]. - Williams previously indicated that a moderate restrictive monetary policy stance is appropriate due to inflation threats from tariffs [4].