安本：预计9月美联储将降息25个基点

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole meeting highlighted three key messages from Powell: increasing downside risks in the labor market, temporary inflation due to tariffs, and a still tight policy stance [1] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut to align with Powell's gradual and data-driven approach [1] - Market focus is on whether the Fed will implement a moderate 25 basis point cut or a larger 50 basis point cut, depending on upcoming labor market data [1] Group 2 - The expectation of rate cuts may lead to depreciation pressure on the US dollar, influenced by concerns over the independence of the Fed under the Trump administration [2] - The company prefers currencies supported by hawkish central banks, such as the Japanese yen and euro, as well as high-yield Asian currencies like the Indian rupee [2] - In Asia, markets driven by domestic demand are favored, with China benefiting from monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, while India’s GST reform and lower loan rates are expected to support consumption and stock market performance [2]