中航沈飞(600760)：25H1业绩短期承压 合同负债项持续修复

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, primarily due to product delivery progress and structural adjustments, but maintained a high level of profitability. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.628 billion (down 32.35% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.136 billion (down 29.78% year-on-year) [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 8.795 billion (down 27.51% year-on-year, up 50.76% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 706 million (down 21.77% year-on-year, up 63.93% quarter-on-quarter) [1] - The gross profit margin was 12.25%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - The net profit margin reached 7.74%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [2] Expense Analysis - The total expense ratio for the first half of 2025 was 2.43%, an increase of 1.81 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Sales expenses amounted to 4.7138 million (up 185.67% year-on-year), primarily due to increased exhibition costs [2] - Management expenses were 392 million (up 20.43% year-on-year), mainly due to increased repair and material consumption costs [2] - R&D expenses were 182 million (down 67.88% year-on-year), influenced by project development cycles [2] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Contract liabilities showed significant recovery, increasing by 155.11% to 7.532 billion compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to increased advance payments [3] - Accounts receivable reached 18.607 billion, up 31.99% from the end of the previous year [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 8.982 billion year-on-year, driven by higher cash receipts from sales of goods and services [3] Employee Incentives - The company launched a second phase of its stock incentive plan, granting 7.8305 million shares to 223 employees at a price of 32.08 per share, aimed at motivating core staff [4] - The unlocking conditions for the shares include achieving a compound annual growth rate of not less than 15% in net profit from 2023 to 2025 [4] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.755 billion, 4.301 billion, and 4.951 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 49, 42, and 37 [4]