乌克兰国力见底，欧洲粮仓正在打光最后一颗子弹

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine is nearing a bottom point, with the future expected to be neither better nor worse than the current situation [1] Group 1: Current State of Ukraine - Ukraine's population has decreased from approximately 43 million to about 28 million due to political turmoil and military conflict, leading to a severe depletion of labor force and military reserves [1] - Key industrial sectors, including steel production in Mariupol, military industry in Kharkiv, and nuclear power in Zaporizhzhia, have either been severely damaged or fallen under Russian control, resulting in a near-total destruction of the industrial base [1] - The agricultural sector, crucial for Ukraine as a major grain-producing region in Europe, has faced significant disruptions in both planting and exports due to the ongoing conflict [1] Group 2: Future Prospects - Regardless of who governs Ukraine in the future, the country will inherit a severely damaged state, posing challenges for both Russia and the EU in managing the situation [3] - A potential positive aspect is the expected return of some of the large number of refugees, which could help restore part of the population base [3] - Ukraine's natural endowments, particularly its status as one of the world's three major black soil regions, remain intact, providing a foundation for agricultural recovery [3] Group 3: Economic Transition - The transition from a country with a significant heavy industry to an agricultural nation is harsh for Ukraine, but it is still better than having no viable path forward [6] - If Ukraine can restore its status as the "breadbasket of Europe," its future may not be as bleak, depending on domestic and international efforts to resume agricultural production [6] Group 4: Timeline of Recovery - Short-term (1-2 years): The outlook remains dark, with Ukraine expected to rely heavily on foreign aid and experience economic stagnation [8] - Mid-term (5-10 years post-war): A painful reconstruction period is anticipated, with continued hardships for the population despite international assistance, but gradual recovery and infrastructure rebuilding may occur [8] - Long-term (over 10 years): If Ukraine successfully integrates into the EU and completes internal reforms, it could evolve into a modernized nation characterized by security, rule of law, economic diversification, and a strong agricultural and IT sector [8]