美联储降息90%概率下，中国机器人如何穿越死亡谷？

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at an openness to interest rate cuts, indicating resilience in the U.S. economy despite labor market slowdowns and high tariffs, while cautioning against inflation risks [3][4] - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged to approximately 90%, up from 75% prior to his speech, reflecting strong market expectations for a rate cut [4] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to lead to a global liquidity surge, with emerging markets likely to benefit from capital inflows as other central banks follow suit with monetary easing [6][7] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - Global stock markets have reached new highs, with major indices in the U.S., Japan, and the UK hitting historical peaks, while Germany and Brazil also set records in July [7] - The A-share market in China has seen increased trading activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching its highest level in nearly a decade [7] Group 3: Humanoid Robot Industry Insights - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant investment interest, but there are warnings of a potential bubble, with some experts predicting that certain companies may not survive past 2025 [9][20] - Reports indicate that some humanoid robot companies have seen stock prices increase by 3-5 times before even starting production, raising concerns about overvaluation [9] - Goldman Sachs suggests that the timeline for achieving a technological breakthrough in humanoid robots is unclear, with expected global shipments of 76,000 to 502,000 units by 2027/2032, slower than market expectations [11] Group 4: Commercialization and Investment Trends - Chinese humanoid robot companies are rapidly advancing in commercialization, with significant contracts such as a 124 million RMB order from China Mobile and a 91 million RMB order from Meiy Automotive Technology [23][25] - The humanoid robot sector in China has seen a surge in investment, with total financing in the first half of 2025 reaching 19.5 billion RMB, of which 60% (approximately 8.4 billion RMB) was in China [28] - The frequency of investment events in the humanoid robot field has increased significantly, with an average of 1.5 to 2 days between events since July 2025 [28]