黄金ETF持仓量报告解读（2025-8-26）黄金因获利了结而承压回落

Core Insights - The total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reached 958.49 tons as of August 25, 2025, an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous trading day [6] - Spot gold prices experienced a mild decline, with a low of $3359.51 per ounce and a closing price of $3365.60 per ounce, down $5.91 or 0.18% [6] - Following Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, which paved the way for a potential rate cut in September, gold prices surged significantly, testing the $3380 per ounce level [6] Market Dynamics - The market currently anticipates an 88% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, up from 75% before Powell's remarks [6] - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in gold prices may be temporary, as the market reassesses the Fed's dovish stance, making it difficult for the dollar to maintain its rebound [6] - Upcoming economic data, particularly the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, is expected to show core inflation rising to 2.9%, the highest level since the end of 2023, which could further support aggressive rate cut expectations [6] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold has solid support around $3350, with Powell's dovish hints creating a clear wave low [7] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating strong buying interest despite a slight pullback [7] - Key resistance levels for gold are at $3380, $3400, $3430, and the historical high of $3500, while support levels are at $3350, $3315 (100-day moving average), and $3285 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upward trend from January to June) [7]