鲁政委：经济新动能逐步成型

Core Viewpoint - Despite challenges such as extreme weather and trade friction, China's economy has shown resilience, achieving an 8.0% growth in exports in July and a 9.9% increase in equipment manufacturing, indicating a potential to meet the annual growth target of around 5% [1][4]. Economic Resilience Structure - Export diversification has effectively mitigated the decline in exports to the U.S., with total exports growing by 6.1% in the first seven months, while exports to ASEAN, Africa, Latin America, and the EU increased by 13.5%, 24.5%, 7.3%, and 7.0% respectively [4]. - Industrial structure upgrades are injecting new momentum into the economy, with high-tech industrial value-added growing by 9.5%, significantly above the overall industrial growth rate of 6.3%. Equipment manufacturing value-added rose by 9.9%, and investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2%, contributing 2.2 percentage points to overall investment growth [4]. - The service sector has made a notable contribution to economic growth, with a 5.5% increase in service value-added in the first half of the year, accounting for 60.2% of economic growth [5]. Future Export Growth Points - The trade war initiated by the U.S. is primarily affecting goods trade, leaving service trade relatively unaffected. Knowledge-intensive service exports, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals, are expected to become new growth points for China's exports [7]. - China's R&D capabilities are strong, with the highest number of R&D personnel globally, and the cost of high-quality talent is lower compared to developed economies, which supports the potential for growth in service exports [7]. Service Consumption Growth - There is significant potential for increasing the share of service consumption in China, which is currently at 46%. As GDP per capita rises to $20,000 by 2035, service consumption could increase by over 10% [8]. - Service consumption is less prone to demand exhaustion compared to durable goods, making it a more stable driver of long-term consumption growth [8]. Policy Recommendations - The government is advised to increase subsidies in the service consumption sector to encourage habit formation and structural upgrades in consumption [9]. - Enhancing the supply of quality services, particularly in cultural and entertainment sectors, is recommended to foster new growth in service consumption [9]. - Targeted support in areas such as elderly care, childcare, and retraining is suggested to address both immediate and long-term needs [10]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - The current "fiscal heat, credit cold" phenomenon is attributed to a front-loaded fiscal stimulus and structural changes in credit demand, with a shift towards high-quality development [11]. - Coordinated efforts between fiscal and monetary policies are essential to address the imbalance, with suggestions for direct fiscal subsidies to lower financing costs for the real economy [13]. - The focus should be on quality rather than quantity in credit provision, with expectations that economic growth will meet targets without further interest rate cuts in the short term [14].