Core Viewpoint - The insurance asset management industry in China shows a stable outlook for the second half of 2025, with expectations of moderate economic growth and a preference for equities in investment strategies [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Most insurance institutions expect the macroeconomic environment to maintain stable growth, with GDP growth projected between 4.5% and 5.5%, CPI growth between 0% and 0.5%, and PPI growth between -3.5% and -2.0% [1]. - The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to appreciate steadily, with key areas of focus including exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [1]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Insurance institutions predict a moderately accommodative monetary policy in the second half of the year, with expectations for timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [1]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, leaning towards expansion to boost domestic demand and consumption, potentially through the issuance of ultra-long special bonds [1]. Asset Allocation Preferences - Equities are the preferred investment asset for insurance institutions in the second half of the year, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [1]. - Most institutions expect their asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025, with some considering slight increases in equity and bond investments [1]. Bond Market Outlook - A neutral to optimistic outlook is held for the bond market, with expectations for 10-year government bond yields to range between 1.4% and 1.6%, and medium to high-grade credit bond yields between 1.5% and 2.0% [2]. - There is a favorable view on ultra-long special bonds, perpetual bonds, convertible bonds, and credit bonds with maturities over 10 years, influenced by economic fundamentals, monetary policy easing, and market liquidity [2]. A-Share Market Outlook - A generally optimistic view is held for the A-share market, with expectations for the Shanghai Composite Index to likely remain between 3200 and 3800 points [2]. - Insurance institutions are particularly optimistic about stocks related to the CSI 300 index, focusing on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense [2]. Overseas Investment Preferences - Hong Kong stocks are favored for investment in the second half of the year, with 40% of insurance institutions also showing interest in bond and gold investments [3].
险资投资者下半年信心调查：股票是首选投资资产
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-26 07:41