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李湛：2025下半年——中国经济将在复杂环境中展现韧性
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-26 07:45

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, China's economy achieved a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, reflecting strong resilience and vitality despite global economic challenges and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Economic Growth Drivers - The growth was primarily supported by effective policy measures and a recovering domestic demand market. Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies provided substantial support for economic growth [3][4]. - Fiscal policy saw an increase in the issuance of government bonds, with a record issuance scale for the first half of the year, including the early issuance of special government bonds amounting to 555 billion yuan, which is an 18% increase compared to the same period last year [3][4]. - Monetary policy maintained ample liquidity, with a further decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), reducing financing costs for enterprises and stimulating market activity [3][4]. Domestic Demand and Investment - The continuous recovery of the domestic demand market significantly supported economic growth. Consumption was gradually improving due to policies like trade-in programs and upgrades in the service sector [4]. - Infrastructure investment countered the downward pressure from the real estate market, while manufacturing investment remained resilient, particularly in high-tech industries [4]. - Despite external pressures, export challenges were mitigated through market diversification and policy support for domestic sales [4]. Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The overall outlook for the macroeconomic situation in the second half of 2025 is optimistic, with expectations of stable growth supported by strong policy measures. The dual-track approach of consumption and investment is anticipated to continue driving the recovery of the domestic market [4][5]. - The focus of macroeconomic policies will be on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with an emphasis on sustainable development through structural optimization and quality enhancement [5].