Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a "split" scenario, with significant disparities between different cities and property types, leading to a fundamental shift in market dynamics and perceptions of property value [5][11][36]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, while new residential sales fell by 6.5% [5]. - In lower-tier cities, property prices have plummeted, with homes that once sold for 500,000 yuan now listed at 150,000 yuan, reflecting a drastic decline in demand [7]. - In contrast, luxury properties in first-tier cities continue to see high demand, with some units priced at nearly 200,000 yuan per square meter selling out quickly [11][36]. Group 2: Demographic Changes - Since 2022, China's population has entered a phase of negative growth, resulting in fewer potential homebuyers, particularly among the younger generation [16]. - The number of individuals in the primary home-buying demographic (those born in the 2000s) is 47 million less than those born in the 1990s, altering the supply-demand balance [16][20]. - The traditional belief in the necessity of "school district housing" is being challenged as families reassess the value of high mortgage payments for educational purposes [20][23]. Group 3: Policy Responses - The government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market rather than simply driving prices up, with measures aimed at both "bottoming out" and guiding the market [25][28]. - The "shelter reform 2.0" initiative is expanding from major cities to nearly 300 cities, aiming to alleviate inventory issues in lower-tier markets through financial compensation and housing vouchers [30][32]. - Consumer rights protections are being enhanced, including trials to eliminate "shared area" calculations in property sales, which is expected to boost buyer confidence [32]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The prediction that "housing prices will be like scallions" suggests a return to real estate as a basic necessity rather than a speculative asset, with a focus on living quality rather than investment [34][36]. - Industry leaders believe that the era of rising property prices is over, and the new norm will be that "housing does not equal wealth" [38]. - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to be a critical turning point for the Chinese real estate market, transitioning towards a more rational and human-centered approach [40][41].
马云预言成真?如果不出意外,2025年下半年房地产或发生重大转变
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-26 07:48