连平：我国央行增持国债的空间有多大？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for China to maintain an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the near future, emphasizing the need for the central bank to increase its holdings of government bonds to support economic growth and liquidity needs [1][31]. Group 1: Central Bank Bond Trading Strategies - Major developed countries' central banks have significantly increased their government bond holdings as a monetary policy tool, especially post-2010 due to economic crises [2][3]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's bond holdings rose to $5.77 trillion by June 2022, constituting 64.7% of its total assets, while Japan's central bank held nearly $5.3 trillion, making up 76.5% of its assets [2]. - China's central bank has historically been cautious in its bond trading, with limited operations compared to its developed counterparts, focusing on liquidity management rather than regular trading [5][6]. Group 2: Future Needs and Operational Space for Bond Purchases - The central bank's bond trading operations are crucial for stabilizing financial markets and macroeconomic control, serving both quantity and price adjustment functions [8]. - There is a significant demand for government financing due to ongoing fiscal expansion, with projected general fiscal expenditures for 2025 at approximately 29.7 trillion yuan (around $4.1 trillion) [10]. - The central bank's bond holdings are currently low, at 2.4 trillion yuan (about $338.3 billion), which is significantly less than those of major developed countries [12]. Group 3: Recommendations for Future Bond Trading - It is recommended to increase the issuance of general and special government bonds to support fiscal expansion and meet market demand [17]. - Financial institutions should be guided to reduce their bond holdings to allow the central bank more operational space for bond trading [18]. - Adjusting the government debt structure by increasing the issuance of government bonds while slowing down local government bond issuance is suggested to enhance market supply [19].