择时是否“抹杀”了你的收益？

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing debate about market timing and presents arguments against it, emphasizing that missing the best days in the market can significantly reduce investment returns [1][2] - Data from Hartford Funds shows that if an investor missed the best 10, 20, or 30 days in the S&P 500 from 1995 to 2024, their returns would drop by 54%, 73%, and 83% respectively, highlighting the risks of market timing [1][4] - AQR Capital's founder, Cliff Asness, challenges the notion that missing the best days is detrimental without considering the days missed during downturns, suggesting that the impact of missing both can be symmetrical [4][10] Group 2 - The article cites notable investors like Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, who advise against market timing, emphasizing the importance of staying invested over trying to predict market movements [5][10] - AQR's analysis shows that the annualized returns for investors who missed the best months were nearly offset by the returns for those who avoided the worst months, indicating that market timing is a two-way street [10][12] - The article presents backtesting results that align with AQR's findings, demonstrating that the performance of investors who missed the best months is closely matched by those who avoided the worst months [14][26] Group 3 - The article highlights the challenges of market timing, noting that good days often occur during bad periods, making it difficult for investors to avoid losses while trying to time the market [20][22] - It emphasizes that the average investor lacks the judgment needed for successful market timing, which is compounded by execution costs and market emotions [25][30] - The article concludes that for ordinary investors, a diversified portfolio and long-term holding strategy are more effective than attempting to time the market [32][33]