Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-26 08:19Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in global fund allocations, driven by the long-term theme of AI, with a notable increase in semiconductor investments and a decrease in industrial and healthcare sectors [1][25]. Group 1: Global Fund Flows - Semiconductor sector emerged as the biggest winner, with a net inflow of $27.2 billion from long-only funds, reflecting institutional confidence in AI-related core assets [2]. - Industrial sector faced a net outflow of $42.3 billion, while the healthcare sector saw a net outflow of $27.1 billion, attributed to declining manufacturing PMI and rising policy uncertainties [2]. - Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) was the largest inflow region, receiving a net investment of $21 billion, benefiting from valuation recovery in technology sectors [6]. - The U.S. market experienced a record net outflow of $6.5 billion, driven by concerns over high interest rates and slowing economic growth [8]. Group 2: Stock-Level Fund Flows - Nvidia (NVIDIA) was the most heavily bought stock, with a net inflow of $16.9 billion, while Apple (Apple) faced a net outflow of $11.2 billion due to weak consumer demand [11]. - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) received a net inflow of $5.9 billion, ranking first among emerging market stocks [12]. - In Europe, British American Tobacco saw a net inflow of $1.7 billion, while SAP faced a net outflow of $2.9 billion due to disappointing earnings [12]. Group 3: Stock Selection Criteria - The report outlines four stock selection criteria: crowded positives, crowded negatives, under-owned positives, and under-owned negatives, to identify potential investment opportunities and risks [13]. - Crowded positives include stocks with high ownership and positive momentum, such as Meta (META), Broadcom (AVGO), and Netflix (NFLX) [15]. - Crowded negatives are characterized by high ownership but low momentum, including Meituan (3690 HK) and LVMH (MC FP) [16]. - Under-owned positives, like Rolls-Royce (RR LN) and Royal Caribbean (PCL US), show potential for valuation recovery due to low ownership and positive momentum [18]. Group 4: Performance Backtesting - Backtesting from January 2015 to April 2025 indicates that crowded positive stocks achieved an annualized return of 9.4%, significantly outperforming the global index [22]. - In contrast, crowded negative stocks yielded an annualized return of only 0.0%, underperforming the global index by 57 percentage points [22].