KVB PRIME官网：美联储降息在即，市场为何却陷入分歧与谨慎？

Group 1 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, but sentiment is not as one-sided as before [1] - Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference were interpreted as signals for a potential rate cut, leading to a significant rise in U.S. stocks and a decline in Treasury yields [1][3] - Despite the initial enthusiasm, market sentiment quickly shifted to a more cautious stance, with investors reassessing the logic and potential impacts of a rate cut [1][3] Group 2 - Currently, the market sees a high probability of a rate cut in September, with futures pricing indicating a nearly certain 25 basis point adjustment [3] - There is a notable divide among investors regarding the necessity of a rate cut, as the economy shows no clear signs of recession and inflation uncertainties persist [3] - Concerns exist that premature policy easing could face price pressures, and political factors may challenge the Fed's independence [3] Group 3 - Some bullish voices in the market suggest that stock market gains should rely on robust corporate earnings rather than liquidity-driven boosts [4] - The upcoming economic data, such as employment and inflation indicators, will be crucial in determining the Fed's next steps [4] - The effectiveness of a rate cut in stimulating the economy remains uncertain, with the potential for adverse effects similar to those seen last year [4]