生成式AI无过热迹象!小摩：明年AI资本支出增速至少 20%!

Core Viewpoint - Market concerns about AI capital expenditure (capex) potentially peaking in 2026 are prevalent, but JPMorgan presents a counterargument based on four key points: no signs of overheating in generative AI, continuous entry of new investment players, significant expansion of AI application scenarios, and the potential demand release in the Chinese market [1][2]. Group 1: AI Capital Expenditure Insights - JPMorgan predicts that AI capex growth will reach at least 20% in 2026, with further growth expected in 2027 if the penetration rate of reasoning models continues to rise [3]. - The top four cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to maintain strong capital expenditure supported by robust operating cash flow, with a projected cumulative EBITDA and operating cash flow CAGR of 23% from 2022 to 2026 [5][4]. - The capital expenditure of the top four CSPs is anticipated to increase from $150 billion in 2022 to a projected $398 billion in 2026, with a consensus forecast showing a cumulative free cash flow CAGR of 16% [7]. Group 2: New Investment Players and Market Dynamics - New players, including private AI labs and sovereign funds, are entering the AI capex space, enhancing investment capabilities despite concerns about spending stability [9]. - The Chinese CSP market is just beginning its AI investment journey, with significant spending intentions from companies like ByteDance and Alibaba, although supply constraints from GPU availability pose challenges [10]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Growth Projections - The Google TPU supply chain is expected to experience the fastest growth in 2026, driven by strong internal demand and recovery from previous supply issues [11]. - NVIDIA's supply chain is projected to maintain robust growth in 2026, with no significant delays anticipated in production schedules [13]. - The ODM sector is showing strong performance, particularly with companies like Hon Hai, which have seen significant stock price increases due to strong demand for NVIDIA products [15]. Group 4: Pricing Trends and Earnings Adjustments - Discussions of price increases across various non-AI sectors are emerging, which could drive the next round of earnings per share (EPS) adjustments [16]. - The Asian technology sector is experiencing a pause in earnings revisions, but future price increases and sustained AI demand are expected to be key drivers for further EPS adjustments [17][18].