Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-26 09:09Group 1 - UBS raised the forecast for Macau's 2025 second half gaming gross revenue (GGR) growth from 7% to 12%, compared to a 4% growth in the first half of this year [1] - The gaming market dynamics in Macau are shifting, with hotel room growth no longer being the main driver of market share growth; instead, table distribution and high-end products and services are becoming key factors [1] - Mid to low-end gaming operations are expected to face challenges from domestic tourism competition and the macroeconomic environment in China [1] Group 2 - UBS anticipates that high-end gaming companies like Wynn Macau (01128) and MGM China (02282) will maintain or expand their market share, with their valuation discounts compared to larger gaming companies expected to narrow [1] - For the third quarter, UBS estimates Wynn Macau's market share at 12.2% (up 0.5 percentage points from previous forecasts) and MGM China's market share at 16.4% (up 0.7 percentage points) [1] - Sands China (01928) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) are projected to have market shares of 24.5% (down 0.2 percentage points) and 19.5% (down 0.1 percentage points) respectively for the third quarter [1] Group 3 - UBS upgraded Wynn Macau's rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," raising the target price from HKD 6.1 to HKD 8.4, reflecting a projected enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 9.5 times for next year [1] - UBS maintained a "Buy" rating for MGM China, increasing the target price from HKD 15.9 to HKD 19.8, also reflecting a projected enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 9.5 times for next year [1] - UBS maintained a "Neutral" rating for Sands China, raising the target price from HKD 17.8 to HKD 21.6, corresponding to a projected enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 11.5 times for next year [2] - UBS maintained a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment, increasing the target price from HKD 43.9 to HKD 46.9, reflecting a projected enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 11.7 times for next year [2]