BTC本周震荡收跌XBIT交易所洞察加密市场轮动下的最新机遇

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), is experiencing significant volatility influenced by macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent statements regarding inflation and employment [3][4][8]. Market Performance - BTC opened at $117,488.59 and closed at $113,478.00, with a weekly decline of 3.41% and a trading volume increase compared to the previous week [1]. - The price fluctuated between a low of $110,635.00 and a high of $117,633.80, indicating a volatility range of 5.95% [1]. Technical Analysis - BTC tested key support levels, including the "Trump bottom" around $110,000 and the 90-day moving average, showing strong support during the decline [3][7]. - Following Powell's remarks, BTC briefly rallied back to the 5-day moving average but could not maintain the upward momentum, stabilizing near the 60-day moving average around $113,000 [3][7]. Market Sentiment and Influences - The market's core variable is the shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly after Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference, which emphasized employment over inflation control [3][4]. - Powell's comments led to a rapid increase in U.S. stock indices and BTC prices, while the dollar index fell, with a 87.2% probability of a rate cut in September being re-priced by the market [4]. Inflation and Economic Indicators - Despite the core PCE inflation rate being at 2.9%, Powell suggested that recent price pressures are temporary, indicating a potential softening of the inflation stance [3][4]. - Concerns about inflation transmission to consumer prices arose after the PPI data exceeded expectations, putting pressure on both the stock and crypto markets [5]. Capital Flows and Market Dynamics - The total inflow of funds into the crypto market was $1.255 billion, a significant decrease from the previous week's $12.29 billion, with BTC Spot ETF channels seeing an outflow of $1.165 billion [7]. - There has been a rotation of funds from BTC to Ethereum (ETH), contributing to BTC's 2.41% decline while ETH saw a 6.88% increase [7]. Future Outlook - BTC is expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern, with potential upward movement if it holds above the 60-day moving average, while a drop below the 90-day moving average could lead to further declines [8]. - The market may experience increased volatility leading up to the anticipated rate cut in September, suggesting a cautious approach for investors [9].